Modeling the Haynesville & Marcellus Recoverable Natural Gas Reserves


In a previous post, we talked about how over the last nine years, the largest source of U.S. natural gas supply growth has come from the Marcellus shale. The Marcellus produces 22.5 bcf/d,..

Natural Gas: A Potential Turning Point in a Decade’s Long Bear Market?


The shale gas revolution began in earnest in 2005. Even though the shales were being aggressively developed, shale gas production in 2010 still represented only 20% of US supply. Of the 21..

BNN Bloomberg Interviews Adam Rozencwajg About Oil


G&R Managing Partner Adam Rozencwajg was recently featured on BNN Bloomberg’s Weekly program with Andrew McCreath. During these two segments, Adam discusses an array of energy-related topics, such..

[New Podcast] Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg join Grant’s Current Yield Podcast


Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg were recently featured on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, where they spoke with Grant’s Interest Rate Observer founder Jim Grant and Deputy Editor Evan Lorenz.


Why the Narratives around Oil Supply and Demand are Wrong


Often at the bottom of intense, grinding bear markets or the top of bull markets, investors will create a narrative to help explain the extreme price action. Today, the prevailing consensus view..

Oil: A Market Divorced from Reality


“Over the last 120 years, we estimate it took 17 barrels of oil on average to buy one unit of the S&P 500 Index. Today it requires over 53 barrels.”


In the thirty years we have been investing in..

Declining Tier 1 Acreage and Slowing US Shale Oil Production


What’s happening to US shale production? After growing by a torrid 145,000 b/d per month in 2018, shale production growth has ground to a screeching near halt. Since December, shale oil production..

Shale Oil: A Startling Prediction Using the Latest Statistical Techniques


“Under any scenario, future shale growth looks set to slow dramatically.”


Developments in the US shale basins have never been more important for global crude fundamentals. Over the past decade,..

Global Resource Anomaly: The Baltic Dry Index


“If global commodity demand was falling sharply today, we would expect tosee the Baltic Exchange Dry Index plummeting. Instead, just theopposite is happening.”


For nearly 30 years, we have been..

Global Resource Anomaly: Oil Market Term Structure


“While the conventional wisdom suggests the oil markets are in a sustained glut, the pronounced backwardization tells us that there is no truth in this belief.”


For nearly 30 years, we have been..

This quarter's

Natural Resource
Market Commentary