Despite recent gains across gold and energy, evidence suggests the current commodities cycle may still be in its early stages.
In a recent Sprott Radio episode, Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, outlines several factors supporting this view:
Gold’s rally appears structural. Central bank demand accelerated following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while Western investor participation has only recently begun.
Monetary dynamics are evolving. While not indicative of a “death of the dollar,” shifting reserve preferences may continue to support real assets.
Portfolio positioning remains limited. Energy and materials represent ~3% of the S&P 500, well below prior cycle peaks of 20–30%.
Supply constraints persist. Years of underinvestment and long development timelines continue to restrict new capacity across key commodities.
Rozencwajg characterizes the current environment as “1–2 out of 10” in the cycle—suggesting potential implications for forward-looking asset allocation.
Listen to the full episode. This interview was originally released by Sprott Radio on Tuesday, March 31, 2026.
Want to learn more from Goehring & Rozencwajg? We invite you to download or revisit our entire Q4 2025 investor research letter, which is available below.
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