Commodities are poised for a significant rise due to macroeconomic shifts, potential monetary regime changes, and the depletion paradox is now patrolling the US shale oil patch.
In this insightful and wide-ranging interview, Adam Rozencwajg joins host Chris Martenson on the Peak Prosperity Podcast. The discussion explores why commodities are poised for a significant rise, touching on macroeconomic shifts such as Trump’s and Bessent’s economic realignments, tariffs, and the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord
At G&R, our investment process begins with a comprehensive macro thesis, which then drives bottom-up research into specific assets and sectors. Today, that thesis points to a fundamental turn in the market cycle: a shift away from financialized, paper-based assets and back toward the real and tangible—commodities, resources, and productive capital.
Our core view is that the global monetary system is undergoing a structural transformation, one that could rival the most significant regime changes of the past century. This includes a process of re-dollarization, shifts in global trade incentives, and a broader realignment of the international economic order. The scale and implications of these changes are, in a word, historic.
A key element of our macro outlook involves the unraveling of the global carry trade—where investors borrow in low-interest currencies to chase higher returns elsewhere, often while heavily relying on suppressed volatility. Historically, the end of such carry trades has been marked by abrupt monetary shifts and a violent return of volatility, with profound consequences for markets.
Adam and Chris also discussed the extreme undervaluation of commodities relative to equities. This type of divergence has historically preceded significant, secular commodity bull markets—occurring three times over the last century. The current setup is strikingly similar, and with the possibility of a monetary regime shift on the horizon, commodities could once again come to the fore.
Another key theme was the oil depletion paradox. Recent projections from the EIA now indicate that U.S. shale oil production will peak by 2027—several years earlier than previously anticipated. This development marks an important inflection point for U.S. energy production and reflects the broader geological constraints that underpin our bullish view on energy-related assets.
In summary, at G&R we believe markets are at a turning point. A confluence of macroeconomic reordering and resource-based realities suggests that commodities are set to outperform in the years ahead. The value is compelling, the catalysts are developing, and the time to pay attention is now.
As always, for a deeper dive into these themes and more detailed analysis, we invite you to explore our quarterly commentaries.
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This interview was filmed in April 2025.
Want to learn more from Goehring & Rozencwajg? We invite you to download or revisit our entire Q4 2024 investor research letter, which is available below.
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