--- title: Exploring Lithium-ion Electric Vehicles’ Carbon Footprint description: Comparing carbon emissions of internal combustion engines to lithium-ion electric. image: https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Blog%20Images/2021.05%20GR%20Blog%20236%20LinkedIn.png --- [![GoRozen logo](https://blog.gorozen.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Gorozen_July2023/images/629a25c15755c930be0d624f_GoRozen-logo-horizontal-web.png?width=444&height=79&name=629a25c15755c930be0d624f_GoRozen-logo-horizontal-web.png "GoRozen logo")](https://www.gorozen.com/) - FIRM - [HOME](https://www.gorozen.com/) - [ABOUT](https://www.gorozen.com/about) - [TEAM](https://www.gorozen.com/team) - CONTENT - [COMMENTARIES](https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries) - [BLOG](https://blog.gorozen.com/blog) - [PODCASTS](https://www.gorozen.com/podcasts) - HOW TO INVEST - [MUTUAL FUND](https://www.gorozen.com/gr-funds) - [CONFERENCE](https://conference.gorozen.com/) - [CONTACT](https://www.gorozen.com/contact) [access latest research](https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries) ![Banner](https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Gorozen_July2023/images/post-image.webp) ## Exploring Lithium-ion Electric Vehicles’ Carbon Footprint 06/03/2021 *“Jefferies published a research note entitled “Are EVs as ‘Green’ as They Appear?” in which they conclude an electric vehicle must be driven 200,000 km (or 124,000 miles) before its “whole of life” carbon emissions equals that of an internal combustion engine.”* ![AdobeStock\_293397729](https://blog.gorozen.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Blog/AdobeStock_293397729.jpeg?width=520&name=AdobeStock_293397729.jpeg)     **April 14th 2021, Jefferies published a research note entitled “Are EVs as ‘Green’ as They Appear?” in which they conclude an electric vehicle must be driven 200,000 km (or 124,000 miles) before its “whole of life” carbon emissions equals that of an internal combustion engine.**   Their analysis is very similar to ours and details the tremendous amount of energy (and by extension CO2) needed to manufacture a lithium-ion battery. Moreover, they point out that a typical EV is on average 50% heavier than a similar internal combustion engine, requiring more steel and aluminum in the frame. They conclude the “embedded carbon” in an EV (i.e., when it rolls off the lot) is therefore 20–50% more than an internal combustion engine.   Our analysis suggests a modern lithium-ion battery has approximately 135,000 miles of range before it degrades to the point of becoming unusable. An extended-range Tesla Model 3 has an 82 kWh battery and consumes approximately 29 kWh per 100 miles. Assuming each charge cycle has a ~95% round-trip efficiency and a battery can achieve 500 cycles before starting to degrade, we conclude a Model 3 can drive 134,310 miles before dramatically losing range. Incidentally, Tesla’s Model 3 warranty covers the battery for the lesser of eight years or 120,000 miles and does not apply until the battery has degraded by at least 30%. If the Jefferies analysis is correct (and we believe it is), then an EV will reach carbon-emission parity with an internal-combustion vehicle just as its battery requires replacement. This will come as a huge disappointment for those believing that EV adoption will have significant impacts on CO2 reduction.   On March 22nd, The Wall Street Journal published a similar report entitled “Are Electric Cars Really Better for the Environment?” The authors agree the embedded carbon in an EV is much greater at the point of manufacturing but argue it would only take 20,000 miles to “break-even” with an internal combustion engine. By 120,000 miles they argue an EV would have emitted 45% less carbon than an ICE and that by 200,000 miles the EV would be 54% cleaner. While this report accurately identifies the large embedded carbon in the manufacturing process, we believe it makes two errors. First, it compares a Tesla Model 3 (a sedan) with a Toyota Rav4 (an SUV). An entry-level Honda Civic, which we believe is a more appropriate comparison, would improve the ICE fuel efficiency by 20%. Next, after consulting the footnotes, The Wall Street Journal article assumes 80 kg of CO2 emission per of battery. This estimate appears to come from a 2019 Swedish Energy Agency report in which they reduce their carbon intensity by half compared with the year prior. The motivation for lowering their estimates was the use of “close to 100 percent fossil free energy \[...\] which is not common yet, but likely will be in the future.” In other words, the cost and carbon-intensity of lithium-ion batteries is predicated on renewable energy which itself requires cheap and carbon-efficient lithium-ion batteries. Even if The Wall Street Journal figures are accurate, we believe most investors still do not appreciate how little the magnitude of potential carbon savings from lithium-ion EVs is.   Assuming a 130,000-mile battery life, an EV would emit between 40–50% less carbon than a comparable ICE according to The Wall Street Journal’s very generous figures. All transportation makes up approximately 25% of global CO2 emissions and passenger use is less than half of that at 10.8%. Using The Wall Street Journal’s figures, if every passenger car was switched to an EV tomorrow, global CO2 would likely fall by 5%. Using the Jefferies data (which is consistent with our data), the difference would be negligible — there would be no reduction in CO2 output.   ### To read more on this subject, including a section on photovoltaic solar power, we encourage you to download the full commentary, available below.   [![Q4 2021 Research: The Problems With Copper Supply](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/4043042/84810904-36d7-4eeb-8a15-87850f14eddd.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/4043042/84810904-36d7-4eeb-8a15-87850f14eddd)   [Back](https://blog.gorozen.com/blog) ### Stay informed with Natural Resource Market Insights ### Recent Posts Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC. The information provided on this website is intended to provide the investor with an introduction to Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC. Nothing on this website should be construed as a solicitation offer, or recommendation to buy or sell any security or as an offer to provide advisory services. Information on this website is intended only for United States citizens and residents. Nothing contained on this website constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other advice nor should be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment advisor or to invest in a fund. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other “forward-looking statements.” Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Investments concentrated in natural resources involve a higher degree of risk than more diversified strategies. **Past performance is no guarantee of future results.** Investment process, strategies, philosophies, portfolio composition and allocations, security selection criteria and other parameters are current as of the date indicated and are subject to change without prior notice. Neither rankings nor recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, publications, media, or other organizations, nor the achievement of any professional designation, certification, degree, or license, membership in any professional organization, or any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that the client will experience a certain level of results if the investment professional or the investment professional’s firm is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. A fee was not paid by either the investment professional or the investment professional’s firm to receive the ranking. The ranking is based upon specific criteria and methodology (see ranking criteria/methodology-to the extent applicable). No ranking or recognition should be construed as an endorsement by any past or current client of the investment professional or the investment professional’s firm. Certain links may let you leave the Adviser’s website. The linked websites are not under the control of the Adviser, and we are not responsible for the content of any linked website, or any link contained in a linked website, or any changes or updates to such websites. Adviser is providing these links to you only as a convenience, and the inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by us of such third-party website. Any references to outside data, opinions or content are listed for informational purposes only and have not been verified for accuracy by the Adviser.  Third-party views, opinions or forecasts do not necessarily reflect those of the Adviser or its employees. Unless stated otherwise, any mention of specific securities or investments is for illustrative purposes only. Adviser's clients may or may not hold the securities discussed in theri portfolios. Adviser makes no representations that any of the securities discussed have been or will be profitable. - [ADV Part 3 - Form CRS](https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Compliance%20Files/Goehring%20%26%20Rozencwajg%20Associates%20CRS%20Form%20ADV%20Part%203.pdf) - [Cookie Policy](https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Compliance%20Files/G%26R%20Cookie%20Policy.pdf) - [Privacy Policy](https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Compliance%20Files/G%26R%20Website%20Privacy%20Policy.pdf) Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates LLC © 2023 ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Goehring & Rozencwajg Team", "url" : "https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/author/goehring-rozencwajg-team" }, "dateModified" : "2021-06-04T21:17:25.505Z", "datePublished" : "2021-06-03T20:27:41.000Z", "headline" : "Exploring Lithium-ion Electric Vehicles’ Carbon Footprint", "image" : [ "https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Blog%20Images/2021.05%20GR%20Blog%20236%20LinkedIn.png" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/exploring-lithium-ion-electric-vehicles-carbon-footprint", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://blog.gorozen.com/hubfs/Logos/GoRozen-logo-web.png" }, "name" : "Goehring & Rozencwajg" } } ```