G&R Blog

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2024 commentary. The great drama of American shale production may now be nearing its final act. For years, we have anticipated that the relentless growth...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. “How the world’s biggest offshore wind company was blown off course: Denmark’s Ørsted was once seen as a model for how oil and gas giants...

Leigh Goehring, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, recently spoke with the Investing News Network about why G&R believes the gold bull market is just starting and shared his insights on the...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2024 commentary and was first published on August 22, 2024, ahead of Kazatomprom’s announcement on August 23rd. “Uranium Fever Backed by Bill Gates Betting...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2024 commentary. Natural gas production is plummeting—a condition noted by almost no analysts. Between December 2023 and May 2024, U.S. dry gas supply has...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2024 commentary. Investors showed little interest in commodities and natural resource equities in the second quarter. The A.I. frenzy continues to...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2024 commentary. “Let us pledge that by 1980, under Project Independence, we shall be able to meet America’s energy needs from America’s own energy...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2024 commentary. As we write, gold has surged past the $2,500 mark for the first time in history, an event that would seem to herald a golden age for gold...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2024 commentary. We first unveiled this chart (shown below) in our 1Q2019 letter and...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. "Uranium Fever Backed by Bill Gates Betting on Nuclear Energy"~ Bloomberg 7/09/2024"One of The Last Holdouts, Australia Weighs...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2024 commentary. In the wake of the 1929 stock market crash and the Great...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2024 commentary. The following is an excerpt from an open letter written by John...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2024 commentary. WTI Crude Oil1/1/1970: $3.182/15/1981: $34.301/1/2000: $25.55...

Exciting developments are unfolding in the global oil and North American natural gas markets, presenting a unique opportunity for investors willing to take a contrarian approach. We believe there is...

Adam Rozencwajg teamed up with WTFinance podcast host Anthony Fatseas to delve into the looming Monetary System Revolution. In this intriguing episode of the WTFinance podcast, the discussion...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2024 commentary. We believe the North American natural gas market has reached a...

Adam Rozencwajg and Yra Harris joined the Financial Repression Authority to discuss Commodities and Geo-Political Risks. They offer valuable perspectives on the overall economy and financial...

During his interview with Jeremy Szafron of KITCO News, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, delves deep into the intricate dynamics of the precious metals market. By focusing...

Leigh Goehring, Managing Partner at G&R and a seasoned investor in natural resources, recently shared his wealth of experience on the Commodity Culture podcast. His message is clear: the time to dive...

Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at G&R, recently joined the MacroVoices podcast, hosted by Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, to provide insightful updates on the energy markets, precious metals...

Prefer to listen to this article? Please click the play button above. The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. Over the last sixteen months, weak grain prices have left traders...

Where does G&R stand on Bitcoin? Does Bitcoin deserve a place in a diversified portfolio along with gold? Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, answers these questions and many more on investing in gold, silver and...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. Copper demand was extremely strong in 2023, growing 7.3% year-on-year over the first ten months, according to the World Bureau of Metal...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. On January 12th, Kazatomprom, the publicly traded Kazakh national uranium company, shocked the markets by announcing it could not meet...

Electric vehicles (EVs) have been widely hailed as a key part of the transition to green energy, but are they helping as much as we think they are? Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, spoke with Charlotte McLeod...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. Five years ago, we became uranium bulls. We explained how the market had quietly slipped into a structural deficit, with reactor demand...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. The biggest mystery in oil markets surrounds the apparent surge in US production. At the beginning of 2023, we predicted shale growth...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. “Saudi Aramco Abruptly Drops Plans to Expand Oil Production,” ~ The New York Times, January 30, 2024 In an unexpected move, Aramco, the...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. Commodities were mixed during the fourth quarter. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), heavily weighted toward energy, fell by a...

Challenge Accepted: Convince Me in 15 Minutes That Uranium is in a Bull Market. Joining the engaging podcast, Convince Me in 15 Minutes, Adam Rozencwajg makes a compelling argument for the promising...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2023 commentary. “Electric vehicles (EVs) are pilling up on lots across the country as the green revolution hits a speed bump, data show.” ~ USA Today,...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary. There are notable similarities between the uranium market twelve months ago and today’s oil market. Almost overnight, uranium went from...

"Wouldn't a recession and continued economic weakness reduce energy demand and thus be bearish for oil and gas prices?" This is a common question that frequently arises during discussions on the ...

The Permian shale oil basin is very close to peaking out. When it does, everything changes for the US and the world. "Everyone thought 2019 was the all-time high for Energy and Oil demand and that...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary. Real interest rates and gold have always moved in opposite directions. When real interest rates rise, gold falls, and when real rates...

Looking at the next 50 years, is the threat of Peak Cheap Oil fact or overblown fear? A month has passed since energy analyst Doomberg released his controversial report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary. North American natural gas is the cheapest energy molecule on the planet by as much as 75%. Over the next twelve months, we believe this...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary. In 2018, uranium assets were widely considered to be stranded assets. Following the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, utilities...

As Natural Resource Investors, we aim to keep investors informed of what is happening in the commodities and natural resources sectors so that you can make informed investment decisions. In 2023, a...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary. In late 2021, we made a bold and deeply contrarian call: we predicted massive capital flows into renewable energy could potentially...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2023 commentary. “It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the...

Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joined "Money Life with Chuck Jaffee" to discuss investing in natural resources and commodities in today's market. We invite you to...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary. Driven by concerns of an impending global recession, copper sentiment remained bearish during the second quarter. On the other hand,...

What is happening in the energy markets? Why is there an underinvestment in energy over the past decade? What is the risk of price fluctuations? What does this mean for prices? Adam Rozencwajg, CFA,...

In 2023, renewables are grappling with rising costs and higher interest rates. The perception of nuclear power in the energy transition is shifting. Is this a long-term change? Natural gas remains a...

In this episode of The Super Terrific Happy Hour podcast, Stephanie Pomboy and Grant Williams are joined by a panel of guests to discuss the macro environment as it pertains to inflation and how each...

"I think that it's entirely plausible to see uranium at US$300 in a spike," ~Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner, Goehring & Rozencwajg Adam Rozencwajg joined Charlotte McLeod of the Investing News...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary. In our view, natural gas prices are reaching a turning point. Gas spiked to decade highs last spring following Russia’s invasion of...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary. We believe oil is on the verge of a sharp rally. As we write this, West Texas Intermediate and Brent trade for $84 and $87 per barrel,...

In this episode, Adam Rozencwajg joined Jacob Shapiro of the Lykeion Channel for an inaugural episode of "The Geopolitics of Commodities".Adam and Jacob discuss a wide range of topics including...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary. Why has uranium rallied while every other energy commodity has collapsed? Over the past twelve months, spot uranium advanced 12% while...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary. Commodities and related natural resource markets were broadly weak in the second quarter. Investors remained concerned about a global...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary. Gold is no different than any other asset class: it becomes popular, rises in price, is overvalued, and ultimately represents a poor...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2023 commentary.Picture it, if you will: December of 2029. In a dimly lit private dining room, the sound of cutlery clinking blends with spirited...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2023 commentary.We are using the 1970s as an analog for precious metals this decade. So far, it is proving to be prescient. By 1974, silver had...

Are we in a commodity supercycle? In this episode, Adam Rozencwajg, Managing Partner at G&R, joined UBS's Paul Stefansson to explore the future of the commodity market and how the energy transition...

Leigh Goehring, Managing Partner at G&R, recently joined the MacroVoices podcast, hosted by Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna, to provide an insightful update on the global food crisis. This crisis...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2023 commentary.In 2016, we published the following chart comparing commodities to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Mr. Gundlach of DoubleLine had issued...

"From a supply perspective (regarding the energy market) I think we are at a very dangerous and important inflection point right now -- and that's because the shale basins which heretofore have been...

We're halfway through the year, so we thought it would be a perfect time for us to pause and reflect on our written works. Below are the three most viewed blog posts for the year 2023 so far. Thank...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2023 commentary.The most crucial development in global oil markets is depletion in the Permian basin. We first warned about this in 2018, predicting the...

"We think that gold has entered into a new phase of this bull market," said Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R).G&R has been bullish on gold for quite some time, but we have been mostly...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2023 commentary.Conventional oil production has now unequivocally rolled over. Unconventional production, the only source of growth in global oil supply...

Curious about the state of natural resources in today's market?Then this podcast episode is for you.Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, recently joined the Top Traders...

What are the impacts of rising interest rates on commodities? Where are rates headed? What does it mean for prices, traders, producers, investment and the energy transition? HC Insider Podcast hosts...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary. “Egg prices soar due to deadly bird flu outbreak.” ~Times Union 1/18/2023 When commodity markets fall into structural deficit, prices...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary. “Codelco Production Slump Shows Copper’s ‘Tremendous Challenge’” ~Bloomberg 1/24/2023 Copper demand remains strong. According to the...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.On December 13th, 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a nuclear fusion breakthrough. For the first time in history,...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.Analysts constantly state that renewable energy competes favorably against natural gas and coal-fired electricity generation on an...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.“The Decade of Shortages” was the unofficial theme for our investor day, held on November 3rd, 2022. Our audience heard presentations from...

Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, recently joined MacroVoices host Erik Townsend to discuss the energy, gold, copper, and uranium markets. This recent discussion...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.Our Q1 2022 letter explained why North American natural gas prices would surge. After making a 25-year low of $1.48 per mmcf in June 2020,...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.We believe investors are being far too complacent about oil markets.After making a 14-year high of $130 per barrel in March, prices have...

Managing Partner Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, was recently interviewed by Paul Chapman of HC Insider Podcast - Conversations in Commodities.During their conversation, they discuss how decarbonization is...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.Commodity prices rebounded in Q4. Natural resource-related equities were firm.Investors came back into commodity-related markets, hoping...

Managing Partner Leigh Goehring was recently interviewed by Decouple Media.In this interview, they deep dive into fracking and shale, the energy source that put Peak Oil concerns on the back burner...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary. “BP’s CEO Plays Down Renewables Push and Returns Lag” “Mr. Looney [(BP’s CEO)] has said he is disappointed in the returns from some of the...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2022 commentary.Crude oil fundamentals are very tight and risk getting considerably tighter. Investors continue to starve energy companies of much-needed...

Several state treasurers have withdrawn billions of dollars worth of investment assets from managers over ESG concerns in recent months. The treasurers felt that firms like BlackRock were too focused...

Managing Partner Adam Rozencwajg, CFA was recently interviewed on TD Ameritrade Network. During this 6-minute conversation, Adam touched based on: Why investors need to watch oil prices - (2023 is...

Over the past 30 months, energy prices went from an all-time record low (negative oil prices) to all-time record highs as strong demand and disappointing supply were complicated by the war in Ukraine.

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2022 commentary.Inflation continued to surprise to the upside in Q3. Aggressive central bank tightening and ongoing worries over China’s “COVID-zero”...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q3 2022 commentary.The most pressing question facing oil markets is why US shale drilling remains so muted despite high prices. A simple question whose answer...

Goehring & Rozencwajg hosted afascinating one-day live eventto discusshow to prepare for the coming decade of shortages in everything from energy to materials and agriculture,on Thursday,...

“I do think that things have really fundamentally changed here, and I think the next number of years will be a little bit different. I think we have to let the dust settle to really understand the...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2022 commentary.Ever since silver staged a furious catch-up rally back in the summer of 2020 -- something that has always signaled a long corrective phase...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2022 commentary. "The Kingdom has announced an increase in its production capacity level to 13 million bpd, after which the Kingdom will not have any...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2022 commentary.Our Q4 2021 commentary was entitled “The Distortions of Cheap Energy.” In our lead essay, we explained how extremely low energy prices...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2022 commentary.The global natural gas crisis has entered its most dangerous phase yet. We just returned from the UK, Switzerland, and Germany and the mood...

“We have an energy crisis, we don’t have enough energy today. And yet people are saying that the answer is that we have to get away from oil and gas and invest more in renewables. It will only make...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2022 commentary.“Are you embarrassed as an American company that your production is going up while the European counterparts are going down…. Would you...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q2 2022 commentary. The pendulum continued to swing in favor of nuclear power during Q2. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put national energy security...

Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joined MacroVoices hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna to discuss how the world has entered the early stages of a global energy...

Goehring & Rozencwajg are pleased to invite all Institutional Investors, Advisors and friends of the firm to 2022 Investor Day on Thursday, November 3, in New York City.

"A reader lives a thousand lives before he dies."~George R. R. Martin Summer is a time to relax, reflect and if you are like us, continue to do more reading. As Natural Resource Investors, our...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2022 commentary. Uranium prices surged during Q1. Spot uranium advanced 26% from $42 to $53 per pound while the quoted term price rose 19% from $42 to $50...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2022 commentary. “World Bank warns of ‘human catastrophe’ food crisis.” - BBC News, April 20, 2022“Farmers are seeing prices for fertilizers skyrocket....

While we are at the midpoint of the year, we'd like to take a moment to reflect on our writings. Below you will find our top 3 most viewed blog posts of 2022 to date.We sincerely appreciate your...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2022 commentary. Between 2010 and 2020 the world grew accustomed to cheap, abundant conventional energy. Global energy markets were so well supplied for so...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2022 commentary. On April 20th, 2019, Bloomberg/BusinessWeek magazine published an issue entitled “Is Inflation Dead?” with a dead dinosaur prominently...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q1 2022 commentary. One of the most frequent questions we get asked regarding this commodity bull market is: “Have I missed it? Is it too late to make an...

Charts of the Quarter Top Chart: Not only is the commodity bull market not over, it has hardly begun. This chart shows the returns of the Goldman Sachs commodity index versus the level of the US...

Adam Rozencwajg, CFA, Managing Partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg, joined the "Top Traders Unplugged" podcast as part of their Global Macro series. In this episode, The Dark Side of Renewable Energy,...

A sudden and unexpected event is about to take place: the global natural gas crisis, now gripping large swaths of the world, is about to engulf North America as well.Asian and European natural gas...

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have thrown oil and gas prices into focus, but an energy crisis has been brewing for much longer than the war has been going on.In an interview with Investing News...

Massive price spikes are occurring in a number of critical commodities after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.In this Financial Sense Newshour Podcast (recorded March 8, 2022), Adam Rozencwajg shares an...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2021 commentary. Without US liquefied natural gas (LNG), Europe may well have frozen literally to death this winter. We believe what is happening with...

The article below is an excerpt from our Q4 2021 commentary. “The world has already passed ‘peak oil’ demand, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest energy outlook from oil major BP.” ...

Managing Partners Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg recently hosted a video webinar that was viewed live by over 1,300 people.

We rarely republish old essays but given its importance we felt the need to do so in this case. In April 2019, BusinessWeek published a cover story asking “Is Inflation Dead” with a picture of a dead...

Inflation is now running at 40-year highs. Natural resource stocks were top performers in 2021 and their leadership has continued into 2022.Could the 40-year bull market in bonds be coming to an end?

The US CPI grew at 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021 signaling the highest inflation in 40 years. Nearly three years ago, Bloomberg Businessweek proclaimed the “Death of Inflation” on its cover –...

“Chevron Girds for Activist Challenge After Exxon’s Proxy Battle Defeat” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2021“Exxon Debates Abandoning Some of Its Biggest Oil and Gas Projects” Wall Street Journal,...

We are currently in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia attending the inaugural Future Minerals Forum. This is our first dedicated research trip since COVID-19 and it has not disappointed. While most investors...

“Europe’s Energy Crunch Sparks Panic in Asia and Dash to Buy Fuel” Bloomberg, September 16, 2021“Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Coming for the Rest of the World, Too” Bloomberg, September 27, 2021...

Over the past 18 months energy prices went from an all time record low (negative oil prices) to an all time record high ($40 per mmbtu European natural gas). The energy crisis we had predicted is now...

With gas headed toward $2/Litre, can an electric future really balance the scales? On December 8, 2021, Adam Rozencwajg was one of the featured experts at the Driving into the Future virtual auto...

“Food Supply Chains Are Buckling as World Runs Short of Workers” Bloomberg, September 2, 2021“Ruined Brazil Harvest Sparks Food Inflation Everywhere” Bloomberg, September 28, 2021 First appeared in...

We are excited to be one of the featured experts at the Driving into the Future virtual auto event brought to you by TOYOTA.

First appeared in Q3 2021 commentary Global oil markets could not have looked grimmer than back in the summer of 2020. COVID cases were increasing again and further global economic lockdowns were...

Few people think of energy at all and even fewer think about its history. We are on the verge of a new chapter in the History of Energy and few people realize the implications.

First appeared in Q2 2021 letter Last summer, we predicted global oil demand would quickly regain its pre-COVID peak as travel restrictions were lifted. Clearly, in retrospect, we were too...

First appeared in Q2 2021 letter Oil production growth outside of OPEC+ and the US shales has been extremely difficult to achieve — even before the recent ESG pressures. Over the last 20 years, oil...

First appeared in Q2 2021 letter The foundation for the upcoming oil crisis is now firmly set in place. Despite recent hiccups related to the delta variant, the world is re-opening and global oil...

First appeared in Q2 2021 letter Uranium stocks sold off in mid-June as news outlets reported a possible leak at the Taishan Chinese reactor, a joint venture with Électricité de France (EDF). The...

First appeared in Q2 2021 letter Copper made a new all-time high during the quarter. After bottoming in January 2016 at $1.94 per pound, copper rallied 150% to reach $4.77 on May 11th 2021. Although...

First appeared in Q2 2021 letter While we believe a huge precious metals bull market lies in front of us, we must also be aware that challenges remain over the medium term. Since the beginning of...

Many of the most popular solutions being proposed to solve our planet’s CO2 problem will be difficult, if not impossible, to accomplish. In this video, managing partners Leigh Goehring and Adam...

Tightness in the US natural gas market is beginning to manifest itself in low inventory levels. After having started the year at a 200 bcf surplus to the five-year seasonal average, US inventories...

First appeared in 2Q letter August 5, 2021 2021 shale production has held up better than we expected. At the end of last year, we predicted shale production would experience sustained sequential...

“Over the longer-term, ESG-led activist investors have all but ensured non-OPEC production will fall dramatically, leaving OPEC with increased market share and pricing power.” Over the past 18...

“With Earnings Soaring, Banks See Boom Ahead” The New York Times, 4/14/2021. A vigorous debate has emerged surrounding inflation as money supply growth dramatically accelerates, deficit spending...

In our Q4 2020 letter, we discussed how China had emerged seemingly overnight as one of the world’s largest corn importers. While China had become a large importer of soybeans 20 years ago, its corn...

Given low ending stocks, both corn and soy are extremely susceptible to any disappointments in plantings, harvest, or weather. As the 2021–2022 season gets underway, problems have already developed....

Non-OPEC+ production outside of the US is facing challenges similar to the situation with the US shales. In their most recent report, the IEA reports that non-OPEC+ production outside of the US was...

Managing Partners Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg recently hosted a video conference call along with Stacy Havener, CEO and Founder of Havener Capital Partners. During the event, they discussed...

Managing partner Adam Rozencwajg was recently featured on Financial Sense Wealth Management’s popular podcast to discuss the supply and demand backdrop for copper, and why we’ll likely see higher...

Exactly one year after West Texas Intermediate crude reached its historic -$37 per barrel low, the damage inflicted on global oil markets from the COVID-19 economic lockdowns has been largely...

“Jefferies published a research note entitled “Are EVs as ‘Green’ as They Appear?” in which they conclude an electric vehicle must be driven 200,000 km (or 124,000 miles) before its “whole of life”...

Prior to 2005, few investors paid any attention to issues related to copper depletion. The reason was simple: the average reserve grade and head grade (that is, the quality of the ore being mined) of...

Investor euphoria has exploded across all types of asset classes and is bordering on mania for a select few. Market participants talk of bubbles everywhere.Well, here is the anti-bubble. As value...

“According to our models, an aggressive push toward nuclear and gas would allow total global energy demand to grow by 35% over the next two decades while still cutting carbon emissions by nearly...

Recently, Jesse Felder, former hedge fund manager and host of the popular podcast Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom, interviewed our very own Adam Rozencwajg to discuss the bubbles in both...

“Given the huge upfront energy needs of wind, solar and batteries, any performance disappointment could mean the difference between moderate carbon savings and net increases in carbon.” Few people...

Electric vehicles will likely not deliver the necessary carbon reduction many people are expecting. In Norway, electric vehicle sales have gone from zero to nearly 60% penetration between 2010 and...

Valuations for nearly any stock tied to renewable energy themes became quite stretched in 2020, and reports from reputable agencies predicting an acceleration in renewable adoption have only added to...

In our latest quarterly commentary, we took a close look at an investment theme that has much — we’d say too much —momentum behind it: Green energy. The full commentary is worth a read for anyone...

We believe we are on the cusp of a global energy crisis. Like most crises, the fundamental causes for this crisis have been brewing for several years but have lacked a catalyst to bring them to the...

“Given silver’s huge move in the last six months, gold and precious metals could now go through a potential correction phase within a larger bull market.” In gold bull markets over the last 50...

A return of inflation could wreak havoc on many investors’ portfolios, especially those heavy in fixed-income securities. In 2020 we wrote extensively on how the Fed’s actions and the CARES Act may...

The Archives from Real Vision recently re-released this classic interview from 2018 featuring Leigh Goehring and legendary financial writer Jim Grant. Their conversation revolves around the turning...

Back in 2Q 2020, amid rapidly slowing drilling activity, a significant historical development occurred in the US shale patch. In previous drilling cycles, sharp slowdowns in activity produced large...

The short answer to this question is: more than index levels of 2-3%.While many institutional investors and financial advisors divide their equity exposure by market cap, style and geographic region,...

Managing Partner Adam Rozencwajg was recently interviewed on Mining Stock Education, a website and podcast dedicated to natural resources and precious metals education and investing. During this...

In case you missed it, last week Managing Partner Leigh Goehring was fortunate to spend some time with Jesse Felder on his popular podcast Super Investors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom. Mr. Felder, a...

By Leigh Goehring “Bonds are so popular that $15 bn of sovereign issues trade with negative yields – a first in 4,000 years of financial history.” In part one of our story about Schlumberger, we...

By Leigh GoehringThe FANG stocks are today’s investment craze. For comparison’s sake, consider Schlumberger’s odyssey from 1962-1980. From its initial public offering on the NYSE in 1962 to its peak...

Recently, Leigh Goehring presented at the Citywire World of Boutiques virtual event. The title of his webinar was: On the Cusp of a New Commodity Cycle. In the presentation, one of the concepts he...

“Over the past decade, there has been a chronic bias in the IEA estimates for non-OECD demand, and we believe this time is no different. Our models suggest that emerging market oil demand has held up...

With gold prices rallying, is it still a good investment? Should you invest in the physical commodities or in the equities of gold-producing companies? What characteristics do a strong mining company...

“Even adjusting the Fed’s balance sheet for excess reserves (a debate in and of itself), we believe today’s balance sheet justifies a gold price in excess of $15,000 per ounce on the low side or...

Below is an excerpt from our Q4 2019 Commentary. However, we still believe today this information is valuable and wanted to share it with you in case this topic is of interest to you. In a previous...

As proof we live in interesting times, just consider the gold-oil ratio over the last few months. Because of the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, the gold-oil ratio has reached the highest...

While we are at the midpoint of the year, we'd like to take a moment to reflect on our writings. Inflation has been a hot topic this year and we’ve enjoyed sharing our views on how the Fed may be...

We may be near the end of the twelve-year bear market in natural gas. Although we have mostly stayed away from natural gas stocks over the last several years, we continue to follow the market...

The Managing Partners here at Goehring & Rozencwajg have historically been relied on to provide perspective on an array of natural resource-related topics. For your reading interest, below is a list...

During a recent client call, this question on inflation was posed to G&R Managing Partner Adam Rozencwajg, CFA: “Over the past 40 or so years, we've been in a period of declining real interest rates....

“If production were to average 80.5 mm b/d, then global inventories would go from ‘full’ to 15-year low levels in only two months.” Image Source: desmogblog.com In recent blogs we’ve been...

“In the history of crude oil, nothing can compare to the past two months." Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner Adam Rozencwajg recently joined Financial Sense (FS) Senior Editor Cris Sheridan...

“According to the EIA weekly inventory figures, US production has fallen by nearly 1 mm b/d or 7% in only five weeks – the second-sharpest decline in US production ever outside of hurricane-related...

We first discussed lithium-ion batteries in our Q1 2018 letter, Déjà Vu: A History and Study of Electric Vehicles and the Oil Market Today. In that essay, we compared the total energy consumed by an...

Oil prices have joined bond yields in doing the unthinkable: trading at negative levels. In the case of oil, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) May 2020 contract reached a low of -$40.32 at 2:24 pm on...

On our recent Market Update conference call (recorded on March 19, 2020), we received a number of questions regarding the supply and demand dynamics of today’s oil markets. Many attendees were...

Last April, Bloomberg BusinessWeek ran a cover story entitled “Is Inflation Dead?” We immediately thought back to the infamous 1979 BusinessWeek cover “The Death of Equities,” written less than...

Goehring and Rozencwajg have just released a Special Report regarding the severe volatility in the oil markets, including analyses around the OPEC+ developments that contributed to the worst two-day...

“The extreme bearishness towards energy related equities reminds us of the precious metals markets back in the late 1990s.” After extensive weakness in both Q2 and Q3, natural resources enjoyed a...

The slowing of shale oil production growth has become an accepted fact. However, we believe new forces are now at work that could produce another downward revision to US shale growth assumptions....

Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R) managing partner Adam Rozencwajg believes oil prices could rise to $80/barrel and higher this year and that natural resource equity investments are radically undervalued....

“Strongly contributing to the slowdown has been the dramatic increase in the underlying base declines.” US shale oil production growth slowed dramatically in 2019. We recently turned to our...

We believe that the upcoming next leg of gold’s bull market will be driven by western buyers, a subject we discussed in our 2Q 2019 Letter. Last decade’s gold bull market, which lasted 10 years and...

In a previous post, we talked about how over the last nine years, the largest source of U.S. natural gas supply growth has come from the Marcellus shale. The Marcellus produces 22.5 bcf/d,...

Happy New Year! While we are at the end of one year and the beginning of another, we'd like to take a moment to reflect on our writings. Below we recap our 3 most popular blog posts of 2019. We...

The shale gas revolution began in earnest in 2005. Even though the shales were being aggressively developed, shale gas production in 2010 still represented only 20% of US supply. Of the 21 trillion...

G&R Managing Partner Adam Rozencwajg was recently featured on BNN Bloomberg’s Weekly program with Andrew McCreath. During these two segments, Adam discusses an array of energy-related topics, such as...

Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg were recently featured on Grant’s Current Yield Podcast, where they spoke with Grant’s Interest Rate Observer founder Jim Grant and Deputy Editor Evan Lorenz. Image...

Often at the bottom of intense, grinding bear markets or the top of bull markets, investors will create a narrative to help explain the extreme price action. Today, the prevailing consensus view is...

“Over the last 120 years, we estimate it took 17 barrels of oil on average to buy one unit of the S&P 500 Index. Today it requires over 53 barrels.” In the thirty years we have been investing in...

What’s happening to US shale production? After growing by a torrid 145,000 b/d per month in 2018, shale production growth has ground to a screeching near halt. Since December, shale oil production...

Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner Adam Rozencwajg is constantly on the hunt for commodity sectors that are radically undervalued. This usually involves companies that have little-to-no...

“Under any scenario, future shale growth looks set to slow dramatically.” Developments in the US shale basins have never been more important for global crude fundamentals. Over the past decade, the...

“If global commodity demand was falling sharply today, we would expect tosee the Baltic Exchange Dry Index plummeting. Instead, just theopposite is happening.” For nearly 30 years, we have been...

“While the conventional wisdom suggests the oil markets are in a sustained glut, the pronounced backwardization tells us that there is no truth in this belief.” For nearly 30 years, we have been...

“The physical commodity markets and the natural resource equity markets are telling two drastically different stories.” At Goehring & Rozencwajg, we are deep-value, contrarian investors. For nearly...

True value investors, Adam Rozencwajg and his partner Leigh Goehring believe the best time to find value in the natural resources space is when commodity prices become disproportionately depressed,...

“A Trend Will Continue Until It Can No Longer.” This saying ultimately has two related meanings. First, a trend may persist far longer than reason or logic would dictate. Second, the trend will...

“What will end the current period of commodity undervaluation? We are more and more convinced that it will once again be related to a shift in the global monetary regime, such as the potential...

Gold prices recently rose to more than $1,400 per ounce. Is this a fluke or could prices actually rally to over $10,000? In this ten-minute video, our very own Leigh Goehring discusses the factors...

On July 23rd, Leigh Goehring was a guest on theInvest with James Westpodcast series hosted by James West, Senior Managing Director & Partner at Evercore ISI.

“We believe we are potentially entering a significant period of decreased sunspot activity, with resulting severe weather implications.” What is a sunspot and how does it affect the earth’s...

We recently pointed out that while it may sound unorthodox, no one has even dared ponder what the effects of a global cooling period would have on crop conditions. If the warming of the past 70 years...